By Stan Clarke, April 9, 2025
Dear Friends and Clients,
For quite some time during the last months, my days have started at 5 and I have been on the computer almost continually until 330 or later, and then again before bedtime. Throughout the day, I occasionally take a few minutes to check animals and make sure they have feed and water. And this dedication paid off. Our drawdown was tiny compared to the stock indexes and considerably less than our benchmark……until today.
We are still doing well, but as of today, the markets have reached a new level of insanity. The volatility this week has never been seen before. I have witnessed swings of up to 11% in a matter of hours, and many days these swings have been 3 to 8% in less than an hour. The risk of a major hedge position loss is as great or greater than the benefit it might provide. Why is this now? Because of the lack of certainty and firm direction around tariffs and their impact on the world economy.
I have lost count of how many times the US has flipped-flopped on threats and plans of tariffs or rates imposed. Markets do not like uncertainty and lack of conviction. Right now, it appears as though the markets are being driven more by emotions and rumors of the US’s next move than they are by the solid facts of policy, supply and demand and business. At times like today it feels like the markets are more like a roulette wheel. This is not a sensible market environment for some types of investing. The risks are too great.
For this reason, we must temporarily put the Market Exposure element of the Mirador Income and Stability Programs on hold. We will hold a reduced allocation of safer securities in order to maintain income levels. We will hold cash as a way of reducing downside. We will continue to monitor the facts and rumors, and I will let you know once things seem to have normalized enough to resume regular investing and portfolio management.
As always, please call me 403-608-4664 if you have questions or concerns and would like to chat.
Sincerely, Stan Clarke